On July 14, 2022, US President Joe Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lipid signed the Joint Statement on US-Israeli Strategic Partnership. The United States pledged “never to allow Iran to acquire a nuclear weapon, and that it is prepared to use all elements of its national power to ensure that result.”
Has Israel enlisted the United States in an open-ended engagement that may require the use of force – possibly the second time in two decades in the Middle East – over alleged weapons of mass destruction ( ADM) in the hands of bad actors?
Although he said “diplomacy is the best way,” Biden’s signature on the statement is what matters to Israeli leaders who said, “if they [Iran] continue to develop their nuclear program, the free world will use force” (Prime Minister Lipid) and “Iran will not have nuclear weapons – not in years to come, ever” (David Barnea, head of Mossad) .
If the United States is on board, let’s hope that Washington will think about questions such as: who decides to attack Iran? Based on information from whom? How will the information be disclosed for public debate? and, more importantly, what’s in it for America? (Remember “foreign policy for the middle class?”)
The White House has called US commitments to Israel’s security “unshakable”, “bipartisan and sacrosanct” and “moral commitments”, but these are commitments without recourse and Washington should think carefully about it. effect on the region and the world if Israel Jerusalem decides to attack Iran.
Will Iran become a nuclear power? You bet.
Even Ehud Barak, former Israeli Prime Minister, thinks so “and it is too late to stop it with a surgical attack”. But Barak is also banking on the imminent collapse of the regime and the fact that the Iranian people will then be more willing to cooperate with Israel and the United States by giving up their nuclear capability.
Hopefully he also considered that even a government that is not hostile to the West will want to negotiate something, like the removal of all sanctions, before delivering the goods, because the memory of what happened to Muammar Gaddafi in Libya will be fresh in his mind.
Israel feels like it is racing against time as Iran moves closer to nuclear status, although a senior Iranian official says Iran “has the technical capability to build a nuclear bomb” but Tehran has no “not made the decision to build an atomic bomb”.
According to the US Congressional Research Service, “Tehran has the capability to produce nuclear weapons at some point, but has discontinued its nuclear weapons program and does not master all the technologies needed to build such weapons.”
Israel is also accelerating the rapprochement between Iran and Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) which, if successful, will reduce tensions in the region and increase the consequences for the Jewish state if it triggers another war in the region with innumerable damage to the global economy.
The economic impact of the Russo-Ukrainian War has been minimal for the United States because it has few economic ties with Russia and Ukraine compared to many European, African, and Middle Eastern countries.
This may not be the case with a war in the Gulf that halts shipments of oil, natural gas and petrochemicals literally overnight due to damage to economic infrastructure or the increased ship insurance (if insurance can be purchased) making most voyages unprofitable. The Persian Gulf, via the Strait of Hormuz, is the source of “about 21% of the world’s consumption of petroleum liquids”. Any country that starts an unprovoked war that causes massive damage to the global economy will have a lot to answer for, and even Israel shabbat goyim in the United States will have a hard time defending this to their fellow Americans.
Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates may be getting closer to Israel, but their ruling families will not ignore the outrage of their citizens if Israel launches an unprovoked attack on Iran. Former US Secretary of State Colin Powell may have set the bar for Israel when he presented America’s ‘slam dunk’ brief to the United Nations Security Council on February 6, 2003 for attacking the Iraq. Is Israel ready to make its case to the world before it disrupts the world?
If Israel attacks Iran, even if it fails, the rest of the world, and especially the poor, will be hurt by soaring energy prices and disrupted trade, transport and migration links.
In the Russo-Ukrainian war, many countries, mainly in the South, decided to drop the latter, despite Washington’s efforts to enlist them on the side of the West. This may repeat itself, especially if many countries suspect Washington’s hand behind the actions of its sidekick, an honorary member of the West – you know, those guys who always talk about “rules-based order”.
In fact, the local consequences should concern Washington. Iran will assume that the United States drafted and approved an attack, so it will retaliate by hitting American forces in the region, based in the United Arab Emirates, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar and in Oman, while Israel is a comfortable 1,000 miles from the Persian Gulf.
Host nations could then reassess the benefits of the presence of US forces and invite them to leave, diluting US presence and influence, all to the benefit of Iran and its friends Russia and China. Moreover, the terrorist groups Hezbollah and Hamas, both supported by Iran, will increase their attacks against Israel, knowing that they will enjoy popular support against the aggressor.
The attacking Israeli forces will have to violate the airspace of many countries, including Iraq and Saudi Arabia, and will have to do so in a sustained manner, as many sorties may be required to ensure that Iran’s nuclear program is terminated. . The governments of Baghdad and Riyadh will have to immediately respond to the citizens’ outrage over violations of their sovereignty and we could see the nightmarish spectacle of US-supplied Riyadh fighter jets closing in on Israel’s fighter jets. provided by the United States. If the US government tries to order the Saudis out, the White House can learn that one punch will only get you so far and should prepare for a world where the price of oil is no longer in U.S. dollars.
If Iran is attacked, seemingly for no reason, how will it benefit?
For starters, he would have good reason to abandon the non-proliferation treaty while pointing out that Israel was never in the pact, and to build nuclear weapons with impunity, after a hasty revision of the declaration no published by the Supreme Leader fatwa the prohibition of nuclear weapons.
It will reap the benefits of local popular sympathy that will push Middle Eastern leaders and Israel’s new friends of the Abraham Accord to draw closer to Tehran and rekindle economic and cultural ties that have been dormant due to US sanctions, challenging Washington to do something about it.
The American public, unenthusiastic after wasting $4 trillion in Iraq and Afghanistan, is unlikely to want to join the fight given that the United States has sold and offered Israel all the weapons it has ever asked for. .
Do Iranian leaders want the Jewish state defeated? Of course it is, but it won’t rely on nuclear weapons for that.
Tehran’s rulers are more interested in survival and longevity than trying to wipe out the Jewish state with WMD, so they will rely on slow pressure from Hezbollah, Hamas and their own forces in Lebanon and in Syria. Iran will keep the conflict sub-nuclear to deny Israel the justification for the attack, while it becomes a threshold nuclear state capable of quickly assembling a bomb if necessary.
It will continue its missile development program for this reason. In fact, the announcement of a successful weapons test and the subsequent halting of the program (with the reintroduction of International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors) might earn the Islamic Republic some credit for its transparency and thus shut themselves up in Jerusalem.
Israel claims it has a “right of self-defense” to prevent Iran from possessing nuclear weapons, but this is not about bombing a Hezbollah outpost that no one cares about.
An unproven Israeli attack on Iran will disrupt the global economy and ensure the long-term isolation of the Jewish state, and not just by its Arab neighbors.
Unless Jerusalem can make a case against Iran, the best case for everyone else is the continuation of the low-level campaign of assassination, subversion and sabotage by both sides. Starting a war because someone might one day be able to build the Bomb is, as America learned in Iraq, painful and costly.
“Beware of small states,” warned Russian anarchist Mikhail Bakunin in 1870, and his advice is as good today as it was then.
This article was also published on Defense.info